GLOBAL CRISIS RESPONSE (GCR)

FRAMEWORK *

(A guiding light for all CTC pursuits & Strategies) 

 

GCR Framework is a framework meant to draw attention towards critical questions and predicaments facing humanity and facilitates systematic analysis to explore resolution alternatives. It does not predict Societal Collapse and Mass extinction events but attempts to assess the likelihood of the unraveling of the Twin Threats based updated science and policy research in public domain.

 

The overall frame of reference being the Twin Threats, incorporation of comprehensive variables like the Triggers & Threat Multipliers (TM), integrated 'trade-offs' within the framework aids in prioritizing the principle risks and effectively scrutinize the most impactful policy interventions. This approach differs from the commonly observed low -impact sectoral & myopic intervention strategies. 

The framework highlights the fact that even if humanity succeeds (hypothetically) in its daunting task of completely phase-out fossil fuels today and tomorrow shifts 100% to clean renewable energy to maintain its current levels of societal complexity, we still may not completely avert the twin threats because there are other Threat Multipliers & Triggers that are not addressed by the Climate Change centric strategies. 

GCR framework demands a much more holistic intervention strategy ('Silver Bullet') that cuts across all Threat Multipliers (TM), diffuses all the triggers and averts the Twin Threats.

   TWIN THREATS

1.Societal Collapse                                 (Crisis for Modern Complex Industrial Civilization)

2.Sixth Mass Extinction                          (Crisis for all life on Earth)

   KEY TRIGGERS

1.Ecological & Climate Breakdown      (Breach of Planetary Boundaries)

2.Scarcity (Bio-Energy-Mat)                 (Ecological Overshoot)

3.Global Financial Crisis                      (Debt Bubble burst & Synchronous Failures)

   THREAT MULTIPLIERS (TM)

1. Anthropocentric  Climate Change    (Fossil fuel use- GHG emissions)

2.Neo-liberal Capitalism (NLC)           (GDP growth model & induced over consumption)

3. Inequality                                         (‘Trickle down’ & Economic disparity)

4. Over-Population                               ( Size – Growth- ‘Demographic dividend’)

   

    DESIRABLE OUTCOMES

     

  • Redefine ‘Good-life’ goals

  • Radical decline/contraction in Population & Economy (consumption)

  • Transition  from complex global economy to a decentralized simpler economy

  • De-energization- electrificationdecarbonizationre-cyclization of CO2

    CURRENT GLOBAL RESPONSES

  • The Paris Agreement signed and NDC commitments made under the UNFCCC framework is insufficient to keep global average rise in temperatures below pre-industrial levels.

  • Worst, every new study acknowledges the conservativeness of previous predictions about global warming and climate change. The trajectory of the Earth’s rise in average temperatures by 2100 is anywhere between 4-10 degrees Celsius. That will make large parts of the planet uninhabitable for most life forms.

  • None of the current global efforts seem to be successfully halting the current trend of large scale breach of the Planetary Boundaries

     

      KEY OBSTACLES

  • Vested interests/Status quoist

  • Uncritical faith in the infinite potential of Science to fix all problems ('rise in efficiency' & 'power of substitution')

  • Neo-liberal Capitalism (ruling elite)

  • Systemic inertia/ lock ins/Progress traps

  • Scientific reticence (conservative and faith in industrial - technological fixes)

  • Inability of policy makers & scientific community to effectively communicate the gravity of the crisis (to even the non-denialists)

  • State & Public inertia due to denial, faith in science & Herd mentality

     ROAD-AHEAD

    TRAJECTORIES FOR HUMANITY & LIFE ON PLANET EARTH

  1. Reclaiming Holocene like conditions (Best case scenario)

  2. Deep Adaptation (Radical transition to a less complex society)

  3. Mitigation & Adaptation (Current global efforts within NLC paradigm)

  4. Business as Usual approach  (Worst case scenario leading towards Twin Threats)

 

     POLICY INTERVENTIONS

  • Radical Population decline and stabilization by 2100 (within  ‘Sustainable Complexity’ limits)

  • Need to categorize human needs into (Based On Necessity & Ecological Footprint) to radically reduce & control over-consumption

  • Global Economic Contraction and maintain Steady State Economy (SSE)

  • Relocalization of Global economy (driven by community needs & resilience)

  • De-Materialization, De-Energization & De- Biomassization (Reducing Grain, Meat consumption & reduce wastage) by strategies like

  1. Resource Use Efficiency (RUE)

  2. Circular Economy (CE)

  3. Shared Economy 

  • Electrification & De-carbonization (Renewable) of Energy Sector (by Fossil Stranding)

  • Global Governance Framework of Ecological Commons & Rationing of Ecological Resources Like Water, Soil, Forests based on equity principle

  • Bio-Regionalism (Eg: River Basin System of Economic Planning) 

  • Build consensus for a holistic principle of equity (by reconciling eco-centric & anthropocentric notions)

 

    ROAD MAP (KEY STRATEGIES)

  • No need to re-invent the wheel i.e. develop fresh knowledge, rather de-clutter the cacophony of information around the global crisis by connecting the dots (making sense of incoherent scientific findings) for the change agents (especially 16-40 years age group)who are free from denialism, acknowledge the crisis for what it is and are actively seeking remedies

  • Simplify the implications of both the risks, solutions, scenarios & their trade-offs

  • Network, engage & mobilize 3.5 % of change agents (critical threshold) in any society (focus on quality rather than quantity)

  • It is impossible to achieve success in mobilizing the entire  society for radical change without first actively engaging the change agents who can comprehend, visualize & demonstrate the feasibility of radical transition by way of personal example (majority usually follow than lead)

  • Developed nations most steeped or locked in fossil fuel driven complexity have very high stakes , so it is unlikely to transform significantly in the near term

  • But developing economies like Africa, Asia, Latin America largely survives on simpler decarbonized systems, thus they can easily adopt or take lead

  • It is very important for the crucial change agents in every society to be ready before the social-political environment is much more favorable and eager to systemic changes

  • CTC aims to slowly but steadily head in this direction acting as a catalyst (how so ever small) in the systemic transition by design.

     CHANGE AGENTS & THEIR ROLE

      Once there is consensus among crucial change agents in the society about

  • The nature & the inevitability of the twin threats

  • Psychological acceptance of life under a down-scaled, less complex and very different paradigm

  • Most desirable and pragmatic trajectory for humanity

  • Technologically feasible, financially viable and ecologically sustainable solutions & strategies

  • A clear medium-to long tern road-map for humanity

 then it becomes possible to conceptualize actionable guidelines for everyone based on                 their relative capabilities, position in life & commitment at the following levels:

  • Individual

  • Family

  • Community/Associations

  • Professional associations

  • State

  • Nation

  • Bio-Regional Associations

  • World Bodies

* GCR is an unpublished & un-reviewed framework developed by Sudhir Shetty and is still being improvised in order to effectively scrutinize the feasibility & comprehensiveness any policy intervention put forward to address the twin threats. This is now in public domain and we are welcoming any critical inputs that will strengthen (or outright refute) this framework. 

 

 

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